Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Rare Earth Minerals Deal
On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine held a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, aiming to sign a deal allowing the US to access Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nonetheless, the discussions took a surprising shift, resulting in a tense argument with Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky left prematurely, the White House confirmed that no deal was finalized.
Zelensky had earlier conveyed hope that this «initial» agreement might lead to enhanced collaboration. Yet, he acknowledged that Ukraine still hadn’t obtained any security assurances from the US—a crucial point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to «recover their funds» from the aid given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that Europe should assume the main role in ensuring Kyiv’s security.
Details of the Agreement Terms
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. This agreement proposed the establishment of an «investment fund» to aid Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal mentioned that the fund would be overseen «equally» by both countries. According to the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its prospective earnings from publicly owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The generated funds would be directed towards projects designed to bolster Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.
The US, in turn, pledged a long-term financial commitment to fostering a stable and prosperous Ukraine, subject to US law. The agreement also stipulated that the US would own the maximum share of the fund permitted under American regulations.
Disagreements Over Mineral Rights and Financial Terms
Tensions between Trump and Zelensky appear to have escalated over the specific terms of the minerals deal. Initially, the US sought a $500 billion claim on Ukraine’s mineral wealth, a demand that Zelensky rejected. Reports indicate that this request was later withdrawn.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and leader of the Kyiv School of Economics, claimed that Washington initially suggested a setup that would have jeopardized Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic failure. However, he observed that the US has since adjusted its position, now proposing a more equitable agreement centered on co-ownership, with no direct claims related to previous aid. He suggested that this could potentially be advantageous for Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, mentioning on Tuesday that the US has given $300 billion to $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, suggesting that a minerals agreement might help reclaim these funds. Nonetheless, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US assistance totals $119 billion.
Does the Agreement Include Security Guarantees?
A key issue for Zelensky has been obtaining clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he affirmed that no such assurances had been secured.
«Including a provision on security guarantees for Ukraine was essential,» Zelensky commented.
When questioned about possibly abandoning the agreement without security assurances, he replied: «I aim for a NATO pathway or something comparable. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will operate.»
Although there are no explicit security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees to secure enduring peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not complete the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus regarding security assurances and figured out how to incorporate them into the initial deal. On the other hand, Trump minimized the notion of direct US security guarantees, asserting that Europe should now assume those duties. He further mentioned that having American workers in Ukraine would provide «automatic security.»
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to give the US a concrete reason to keep backing Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for access to minerals, Ukraine would obtain the «right to continue fighting,» with the US continuing to provide military gear and ammunition «until an agreement with Russia is achieved.»
The US president has also claimed that Russia is open to allowing European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed this possibility.
When Will the Agreement Be Signed?
Trump initially announced that the agreement would be finalized during Friday’s White House meeting. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal verified that the final draft of the agreement was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was meant to be signed.
Ultimately, no agreement was signed. Instead, the gathering turned into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. During the heated exchange, Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US support and cautioned him against «risking World War Three.»
«You have to finalize a deal, or we’re withdrawing,» Trump allegedly warned Zelensky. «You lack the leverage.»
Zelensky, in response, insisted that there could be «no compromises» with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly afterward—well ahead of schedule—Zelensky left the White House. The White House then announced that the deal had not been finalized, with Trump himself canceling the signing ceremony.
Trump later posted on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having «disrespected the US in its cherished Oval Office» and stating: «He can come back when he is ready for peace.»
Currently, it is uncertain if or when the agreement will be executed.
Ukraine’s Rich Mineral Resources
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine holds around 5% of the world’s «critical raw materials.» This includes approximately 19 million metric tons of confirmed graphite reserves, placing Ukraine among the top five global suppliers of this mineral, which is crucial for electric vehicle battery production.
Moreover, Ukraine boasts considerable deposits of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it possesses large reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals vital for military tech, wind turbines, and electronic devices—although the precise extent of these reserves is contested by some experts.
Adding to the complexity, certain mineral-abundant regions of Ukraine are presently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has indicated that mineral deposits with an estimated value of $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
An additional challenge to extracting minerals is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that about 25% of Ukraine’s territory is affected, especially in the war-ravaged eastern areas.
Time poses another issue. Even if the agreement reaches completion, it may take years before the mining and export of these resources deliver concrete economic advantages.
«These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,» explained Mylovanov. «Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.»
How Has Russia Reacted?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet addressed the reported particulars of the US-Ukraine agreement. Nonetheless, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is willing to «provide» mineral resources to American companies for cooperative ventures, including extraction in Russia’s «new territories»—alluding to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia «certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.»
«As for the new territories, we are ready to attract foreign partners to develop these regions, which have returned to the Russian Federation,» he added.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the situation is still evolving: «We’ll see whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.»